Unpredictable races in the Premier League

Round 28 of the Premier League ended with results that made the remaining journey of this season's tournament more dramatic.

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Championship race

Arsenal directly benefited from the 1-1 draw between Man City and Liverpool at Anfield. The "Gunners" (64 points) returned to the top of the Premier League, surpassing Liverpool in difference (+46 compared to +39). Man City is ranked right behind these two teams with 1 point less.

Statistics and computer forecasts show that Man City is still the highest rated in the 2023/24 Premier League championship race, but looking at how Liverpool and Arsenal play, fans can dream of an overthrow at the end season.

The three-horse race in the Premier League is likely to be attractive until the final rounds.

Opta's supercomputer estimates that Man City has a 45.9% chance of successfully defending the English championship. Liverpool has a 35.4% chance of winning the championship.

Even though it has less points than the two leading teams, Pep's team is still highly appreciated thanks to its strength and experience in road racing. However, the performance on the night of March 10 at Anfield showed that Man City this season is not too strong compared to the past, so they can easily be crowned champions of England again. At many times during the match, Man City let Liverpool wear the shirt even though the Anfield team fielded a patchwork squad.

Even if the referees determine that Jeremy Doku committed a foul in the tackle with Alexis Mac Allister in the 98th minute, Man City faces the worst scenario at Anfield. Liverpool deserved more than a draw, even though they suffered many disadvantages and were underestimated compared to Man City before the great war.

Man City cannot win against a Liverpool team with a patchwork squad

Man City continued their series of disappointing performances in big matches this season. When facing the top 6 Premier League this season, Man City only won against MU. They lost to both Arsenal or Aston Villa in the first leg, and drew poorly against Liverpool or Tottenham.

Arsenal is assessed by Opta as having only an 18.8% chance of winning the Premier League at the end of the season, despite showing destructive form in the tournament in the past two months. "Gunners" often run out of breath at the decisive stage because of their lack of experience. That may be the reason people underestimate Arsenal's championship chances.

However, statistics are for reference only. Arsenal is among the teams with the highest performance in Europe recently. The way the home team at Emirates Stadium suppressed their opponents, winning big and taking an early lead, made them a formidable opponent for Liverpool and Man City in the championship race.

The Premier League is also the only tournament in the top 5 European national leagues this season that has a dramatic championship race after 2/3 of the way. In Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga or Ligue 1, leading teams such as PSG, Inter, Bayer Leverkusen or Real Madrid all hold great advantages.

Relegation race and top 4

Tottenham's 4-0 victory at Aston Villa in round 28 brought joy to both the "Rooster" and MU. Signs of Villa's instability recently have made people worry that this season's Premier League "dark horse" will collapse at the decisive stage.

Coach Unai Emery's team lost to both MU and Tottenham in two direct matches. Tottenham is now only 2 points behind Aston Villa.

MU still has no chance of getting into the top 4

Opportunities for MU are therefore bright again. The "Red Devils" are currently 6 points behind Tottenham, 8 points behind Aston Villa. The Premier League has 10 more rounds to go and if coach Erik ten Hag's team creates an impressive sprint, anything can happen.

In the relegation race, except for Burnley and Sheffield United, which is almost impossible to reverse, Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Brentford or even Crystal Palace all have a narrow gap. The remaining relegation spots of the Premier League are likely to belong to these 5 teams.